.png/:/rs=h:75,cg:true,m/qt=q:95)
Kicking Off NFL Week 1 with DraftKing's’ $5 Milly Maker
A Chance at a Million Dollars
As we gear up for the opening week of the NFL season, there's a palpable excitement in the air. Football is back, and with it comes one of the most exhilarating opportunities in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): the DraftKings Milly Maker. For just $5, you could potentially win a life-changing $1 million. It’s a contest that draws in hundreds of thousands of entries, each dreaming of that top prize. As I prepare my lineups, I’m both excited and cautious—(mostly excited, but trying really hard to be cautious) because while the opportunity is incredible, there are things to keep in mind about entering such a massive tournament.
My Personal Take
Like many of you, I’ve been waiting all year for this moment. I play DFS basketball, baseball, MMA, NASCAR and even some CSGO, but none of those get me as excited as a Sunday slate in the NFL, let alone a Milly Maker for $5. Nothing is quite like the NFL in producing a cohesive story from beginning to end, with a season schedule that is nearly perfect in length. As a 40something father of 3 girls, I have to make hard choices with what I do with my time, and the NFL on Week 1 is the one day I won’t miss. I will definitely be watching Thursday and Friday, but Sunday is the big day and also the day when any one of us could win a million dollars on a $5 entry.
It seems too good to be true from a DFS perspective. Typically Milly Makers are $20 an entry, sometimes $15. That means that on a typical Sunday, a DK Milly Maker will cost $3000 to max out. That is as close as many of us can get to being on equal footing with the pros. On the other hand, this week would cost $750 to max out. That is still a lot of money, and many of us can’t reasonably budget $750 for the opening Sunday of the football season, but it does make it possible for many casual fans to have multiple entries at a reasonable cost. This is all just a long-winded way of saying that there are pros and cons to playing this opening week contest. Here are some:
Does this mean that the odds of winning are a million to 1?
The odds are technically 951,200 to one, but that is with one entry. Maxing out with 150 entries ($750) makes your odds 6,341. Obviously, buying more than one ticket but less than 150 will improve your odds in the direction of 6,341 to 1. To put that in perspective, Powerball odds are about 292 million to 1, Mega Millions odds are 302 million to 1, and state lotteries range from 10 million - 100 million to 1.
Lotteries certainly pay out way more, sometimes over a billion dollars, but the actual likelihood of winning something with 300 million to 1 odds requires random luck that is ridiculous to put into perspective. It is far more likely to get struck by lightning (15,000 to 1) or to die because an asteroid enters Earth’s atmosphere and lands directly on you (74,817 to 1) than to win the Powerball.
In addition to having far better odds, DFS contests like the Milly Maker involve skill. Your lineup's construction, player selection, and strategic decisions can influence your odds of winning, though the inherent variance in DFS means that even a skilled player faces long odds in such a large field. That being said, this is the best chance most of us have at winning a million dollars on any given Sunday.
Now, for the cons:
2nd Place and Beyond
The nature of GPP’s is that the prizes are extremely top heavy and the rake, especially in heavily promoted contests, is higher than usual. This is certainly true of the milly maker. Let’s look at the prize structure. The grand prize is $1,000,000, but as you move down the payout ladder, the numbers drop significantly:
- 2nd place: $200,000
- 3rd place: $100,000
- Top 10 places all earn five-figure payouts.
- Even if you place between 501st and 650th, you’ll walk away with $200.
But as you can see in the second screenshot, by the time you get to the 6,000th place and beyond, the payout drops to $8. That’s still more than your entry fee, but it highlights the steep drop-off in winnings.
So, while it’s true that $5 could win you a million dollars, it’s also true that the odds of landing that top spot are incredibly slim. With nearly a million entries, your lineup has to be close to perfect to take home the top prize. The contest pays out to the top 214,375 entries, but remember, the vast majority of those will be small payouts that barely cover your entry fee.
What to Be Wary Of
So, what should you be wary of when entering the Milly Maker or similar large-field GPPs?
1. Variance: In such a large contest, variance plays a huge role. Even the best players and the most carefully constructed lineups can fall short. This isn’t to say you shouldn’t play—just be aware that the outcome can be unpredictable.
2. Entry Limitations: While you can submit up to 150 lineups in this contest, not everyone has the bankroll or time to do so. If you’re entering just a handful of lineups, your chances of winning are even smaller. It’s important to set realistic expectations.
3. Bankroll Management: Don’t get caught up in the hype and overspend on entries. Stick to your bankroll management strategy, which means only risking a small percentage of your total bankroll on a high-variance contest like this.
Conclusion
The DraftKings Milly Maker is an incredible opportunity to turn $5 into $1 million, and I’m as excited as anyone to see how my lineups perform. But it’s important to approach this contest with a clear understanding of the risks and the odds. Enjoy the thrill, but don’t lose sight of your overall DFS strategy. After all, while a million-dollar win would be amazing, consistent, smart play is what keeps you in the game week after week. You do not want to be down to your last $6
Good luck, and may your lineups bring you both excitement and success this NFL season!