The Big Slate in MLB: How to approach it in GPP and Cash

Navigating the Turbulent Waters of Large DFS Baseball Slates

Let me start by saying that I came up with this blog topic because I have recently been loving the NBA Playoffs and the 2-3 game slates. I just love the simplicity of small slates. In the NBA, where playing time and production are most predictable, there is a beautiful balance of randomness and predictability. On the other hand, Baseball, already more random and difficult to prognosticate, maximizes stress for me when the slate is 10 or more games. On slates this large in MLB, DFS players need to juggle a slew of factors such as weather conditions, roster uncertainties, as well as strategic decisions like stacking and fading. In this article, we’ll explore how to effectively tackle these large slates for both Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) and cash games, ensuring you're prepared to make informed decisions that can enhance your chances of success.

The Complexity of Large Slates

Large slates in DFS baseball mean more options and more variables. This complexity can be daunting, but it also opens up avenues for strategic differentiation from your competition.

1. Weather Watch: This is my least favorite thing in DFS. I just hate having to worry about whether (haha) a game will even take place, much less the concern that a starting pitcher may start the game but not come back after a long delay - or be switched out completely after contests have locked. Weather impacts baseball significantly and it can really suck. Rain can delay or postpone games, and wind can influence the flight of the ball dramatically. For large slates, it’s crucial to monitor the weather forecasts closely for all locations. Tools like RotoWire's weather reports or general weather apps need to be checked regularly leading up to lineup lock.

2. Roster Changes and Late Scratches: Player availability can change in a heartbeat. Staying updated on MLB lineups, injury reports, and pre-game shows is critical. This information can often be the difference between rostering a player who might not take the field and finding a last-minute value pick who could outperform expectations.

Strategic Considerations

Navigating a large slate requires a blend of well-informed strategy and intuition. Here are some tactical approaches to consider:

GPP Strategies

1. Stacking: In GPPs, stacking (selecting multiple players from the same team) is a popular strategy. It capitalizes on the correlated success of players within a high-scoring game. For large slates, consider going with 3-4 stacks from different teams. This might include a primary stack (4-5 players from one team) and a secondary stack (2-3 players from another team). If you hit on two of these stacks (with one being the top stack), you will likely find a lot of lineups in strikng distance of #1. In GPP"s, you will eventually take down tournaments if you regularly play slates where you have lineups loaded with the top 2-3 stacks. It is still difficult, but this is about as simple as it gets in pinpointing the likely path to winning a large field GPP in MLB on a large slate.

2.  Fading the Chalk Identifying highly-owned players and deciding to fade them can set your lineup apart in GPPs. If a popular player underperforms, it provides an opportunity to leapfrog a significant portion of the field. However, don't fade just for the sake of contrarianism; ensure there’s logical reasoning that the player might underperform relative to their ownership level. Choosing the right player to fade could immediately put you in the top half of lineups if the chalk is chalky enough.

3. High Ownership Allowance While it's beneficial to differentiate, having some exposure to high-ownership players who are poised for a big game is also crucial. In large slates, you might allow 2-3 high-ownership players, especially if their matchups are too good to ignore. I like to cap ownership on any one player at 30-40% depending on how hyped I am about the situation, I would recommend 30% to be more conservative and never allow one player to totally ruin your slate.

Cash Game Strategies

1. Safety First In cash games, the goal is not necessarily to finish first but rather to beat roughly half the field. Therefore, opting for safer, more reliable players is a priority over high-risk, high-reward strategies. 

2. Moderate Stacking and Exposure While stacking can still be effective in cash games, it’s often safer to limit stacks to pairs or trios from the same lineup to hedge against total busts. Similarly, ensure you have a balance of high- and low-ownership players to maintain a steady point flow.

3. Player Selection Focus on high-floor players. These are typically athletes who consistently score points via hits, walks, or other statistical contributions that don’t rely solely on home runs or big plays. This means hitters who get on base a lot and have speed. They will consistently get you hits, walks, stolen bases, and runs scored even on days when they have seemingly ho hum performances.

Utilizing Ownership and Data

Understanding projected ownership can be particularly useful. Services like FantasyLabs provide tools to estimate how widely players will be selected in any given slate. Pair this with performance data and matchup analysis to decide when to follow the crowd and when to differentiate.

Conclusion

Large DFS baseball slates require meticulous preparation and strategic agility. By monitoring real-time updates such as weather and player news, leveraging stacking and fading appropriately, and balancing your exposure to owned players, you can navigate these challenging waters more effectively. Whether you're playing GPPs or cash games, the key lies in using the breadth of data available to make informed, strategic decisions that maximize your potential for success on any given day. Remember, in DFS, knowledge is as crucial as the picks themselves. Good luck, and if these slates are still not fun for you, just focus on NBA until the next small or medium MLB slate comes along.