Choosing Hitters for DFS Baseball

Note: DFS Profits focuses exclusively on DraftKings for simplicity and because the author only plays on that platform..

1. Warmup (Overview) 

2. Roster Construction

3. Choosing Starting Pitchers

4. Choosing Hitters (you are here)

5. Stacking

6. Ownership and Leverage

7. Ballparks and Weather

8. Contest Selection

9. Advanced Tools and Resources

In the world of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), constructing a winning lineup requires a strategic blend of power, speed, and consistency. Today's blog delves deep into the art of selecting batters who can bring a dynamic mix to your lineup, emphasizing the importance of considering ballparks, opposing teams, and pitchers, as well as the value of team stacking and uncovering sleeper picks that could give you the competitive edge you need.

Key Metrics for Evaluating Hitters

To effectively analyze hitters for DFS baseball, it's essential to understand and utilize advanced metrics. Some of the most important metrics include:

1. Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): wOBA is a comprehensive metric that measures a hitter's overall offensive value by assigning different weights to each offensive event based on its relative importance.

2. Isolated Power (ISO): ISO measures a hitter's raw power by calculating the number of extra bases a player averages per at-bat. It's a valuable metric for identifying power hitters who can rack up DFS points quickly.

3. On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS): OPS combines a player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage to provide a snapshot of their overall offensive production. Hitters with high OPS scores are often strong DFS targets.

Batting Order Position and Platoon Splits

When selecting hitters for your DFS lineups, it's crucial to consider their batting order position and platoon splits:

1. Batting Order Position: Hitters at the top of the lineup typically have more opportunities to score runs and accrue DFS points. Focus on players batting in the top half of the order, particularly those in the 1-4 spots.

2. Platoon Splits: Many hitters perform better against opposite-handed pitchers (i.e., right-handed hitters vs. left-handed pitchers, and vice versa). Pay attention to a hitter's splits and target players with favorable matchups.

Ballparks and Opposing Teams/Pitchers

The ballpark and the opposing team's pitcher can significantly impact a hitter's performance:

1. Ballpark Factors: Some ballparks are known to be more hitter-friendly due to factors such as altitude, dimensions, and wall heights. Target hitters playing in these favorable parks, as they have a higher likelihood of scoring more DFS points.

2. Opposing Pitchers: Analyze the opposing team's starting pitcher and their tendencies. Look for pitchers with high ERA, WHIP, and HR/9 rates, as they are more likely to give up runs and extra-base hits. Also, consider a pitcher's splits and target hitters who have a favorable matchup based on handedness.

Stacking Strategy

Team stacking is a tried-and-true strategy in DFS, where you select multiple hitters from the same MLB team. This approach leverages the potential for a high-scoring game, amplifying your points when that team performs well offensively. Consider stacking hitters from teams playing in hitter-friendly parks or facing a struggling pitcher. The key is to mix high-cost stars with lower-priced players who are expected to start, balancing your budget while maximizing upside.

Identifying Sleeper Picks

Every DFS slate presents the opportunity to identify sleeper picks or undervalued players who could outperform their price tags. These players can be the difference-makers in GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) contests. To find sleepers, look for hitters who are:

- Moving up in the batting order due to injuries or lineup changes.

- Facing a pitcher with notable splits weakness (e.g., a right-handed pitcher who struggles against lefties).

- Playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Showing signs of breaking out of a slump, indicated by hard-hit rates and exit velocity metrics.

Conclusion

Building a winning DFS lineup on DraftKings requires a nuanced approach, blending power, speed, and consistency while considering ballparks, opposing teams, and pitchers. Utilizing advanced metrics, considering batting order positions and platoon splits, incorporating team stacks, and identifying sleeper picks are crucial strategies that can elevate your lineup. By keeping these principles in mind and staying informed on daily matchups and player news, you'll be well-equipped to make informed decisions and maximize your chances of success in DFS baseball on DraftKings.