2024 DFS Starting Pitching Primer

1. Warmup (Overview) 

2. Roster Construction

3. Choosing Starting Pitchers (you are here)

4. Choosing Hitters

5. Stacking

6. Ownership and Leverage

7. Ballparks and Weather

8. Contest Selection

9. Advanced Tools and Resources

Hey there, fellow baseball enthusiasts and fellow busy dads! I don't know about you, but I'm absolutely pumped for the start of the baseball season this year, especially since the Yankees managed to snag Juan Soto. I can't wait to dive into some serious DFS action on opening day, so I figured I'd share my two cents on the ace pitchers and how to approach picking your starting rotation in DFS.

If you're planning on playing more DFS Baseball this season, my advice is to get a good grasp on what's happening in the league. The more you know about the top pitchers, sluggers, up-and-comers, and aging vets, the quicker you'll be able to spot value in the player prices and come up with a winning strategy for tournaments. For those of you playing Cash or 50/50 games, knowing which players are the most reliable is going to be key to building lineups that consistently come out on top. There's no shortage of resources out there to help you out, but when you're short on time, being able to streamline your research is crucial for putting together quality lineups.

Speaking of resources, I'll do my best to point you in the direction of the ones I use and give you the scoop on how helpful they are. I know how it is to be pressed for time, so I'll try to give you a quick rundown while also providing some pointers on where to dig deeper when you have a bit more time to spare.

Why Focus on Pitchers for DFS?

• High Scoring Potential: The right pitcher can accumulate significant points through strikeouts, innings pitched, and game wins, providing a solid foundation for your DFS lineup.
• Predictability: While baseball is known for its unpredictability, elite pitchers offer a semblance of reliability in their performances, making them safer bets in the volatile DFS landscape.
• Strategic Advantage: Understanding the top pitchers in the game allows you to anticipate high-value matchups, identify potential sleeper picks opposing them, and make informed decisions on when to roster or fade them based on their matchups and playing conditions.
• 
  

Why metrics should you research for starting pitchers?

• Strikeouts: Strikeouts rule in Draft Kings, so you want a top-tier starter to have the potential for 8+ K’s. On the other hand, a value play could pay off huge with 5 or 6 strikeouts at a low price. Other strikeout metrics to look at are K’s per 9 innings and K%. 
• WHIP: Draft Kings deducts for walks and hits given up, so we want pitchers who limit baserunners. This is obvious, but oftentimes high strikeouts come with high walks, and a pitcher who has control issues can quickly negate a good game with some walks and the inevitable 6th inning 3 run homer, or, worse, the 3 runners left on base in the 6th who score with a base clearing single off of the relief pitcher who promptly strikes out the next three hitters.
• ERA: The old school earned runs per 9. Hardcore players will go with SIERA, which intends to take randomness and luck out of the equation, but a low ERA is still a good metric if you are more comfortable - just be aware that a low ERA or a high ERA can both be misleading, especially early in the season.
• SIERA: the aforementioned upgrade to ERA, this metric looks to take the randomness out of the equation and also factors in the type of batted balls to truly capture the quality of contact hitters are making against the pitcher.
• Quality Starts: A QS is 6 innings pitched with 3 or fewer earned runs given up. You need a pitcher to get innings (another part of their DFS score) to rack up strikeouts, so I feel much safer playing guys who frequently go 6 innings without getting shelled. 

Before we get into the opening day starters/aces, here are some links I have used in researching this article, Check them out if you want to dig deeper. As the season progresses, try to find some resources that you feel good about to quickly check in with when you are pressed for time to make lineups.

Note: I almost exclusively play Draft Kings, so my content is usually written based on Draft Kings pricing, scoring, and contests.

DraftKings Opening Day Tracker

Opening Day Starters (so far)

Yahoo Top 200

Fantasy Pros Starting Pitcher Expert Rankings

MLB.com Top Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers

StatMuse: Most Strikeouts by Team

Team Rankings Strikeouts Per 9 Innings